Harmony expired: Why did the main mouthpiece of Latvia’s minorities fail during the 2022 parliamentary election?

Abstract

Latvia is a small European state with a significant minority constituency. Minorities form a significant element of its political landscape, characterized by a cleavage between ethnic Latvians and the so-called Russophones. For over a decade, the political representation of Latvia’s minorities was dominated by Harmony, an integrationist social-democratic political party that mobilized the electorate beyond ethnic cleavage. This study analyzes Harmony’s campaign messages delivered by the party’s key figures during the 2022 parliamentary election to identify the drivers of failure. It argues that Harmony’s tactics overlook the challenges of political rivals, including those with similar constituency characteristics. The analysis of the sustainability of Harmony’s electorate includes a comparison of the party’s electoral performance during all campaigns from the 2006 to 2022 parliamentary elections, with a specific focus on Riga and Latgale, the party’s electoral strongholds. This finding suggests that integrationist parties are increasingly vulnerable to changes in the political environment caused by altered domestic and international political contexts.